Rate differentials · ECB vs SNB · priced as of 12 November 2026
EUR/CHF interest rate differential: ECB vs SNB
As of 12 November 2026, the EUR/CHF interest rate differential is +250 bp: the ECB's deposit rate at 2.50% against the SNB's policy rate at 0.00%, in favour of the euro. Markets price the gap at +271 bp in six months and +266 bp in twelve.
Over the next six months, markets price the gap to move +21 bp over six months, towards the euro. That six-month gap has moved +14 bp in a month.
The rate spread, now and priced ahead
| ECB (EUR) | SNB (CHF) | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Policy rate now | 2.50% | 0.00% | +250 bp |
| Priced in 6 months | 3.00% | 0.29% | +271 bp |
| Priced in 12 months | 3.17% | 0.51% | +266 bp |
| 6-month gap a month ago | 2.93% | 0.36% | +257 bp |
The gap is EUR minus CHF, in basis points (100 bp is one percentage point). Six and twelve months out is the rate implied after each bank's last meeting on or before that date. Market pricing, not a forecast. Each bank's meeting-by-meeting odds: ECB · SNB.
The carry on EUR/CHF
The euro: the ECB pays 2.50% against 0.00%, a gap of +250 bp. Holding the higher-yielding currency against the lower earns roughly that gap a year before costs, which is what the carry trade collects; a move in the exchange rate can outweigh it.
How the gap feeds the exchange rate, and when it does not: rate differentials explained and the carry trade explained.
Questions
What is the EUR/CHF interest rate differential?
As of 12 November 2026, the EUR/CHF interest rate differential is +250 bp: the ECB's deposit rate at 2.50% against the SNB's policy rate at 0.00%, in favour of the euro. Markets price the gap at +271 bp in six months and +266 bp in twelve.
Is the ECB–SNB gap priced to widen or narrow?
Markets price the gap to move +21 bp over six months, towards the euro, from +250 bp now to +271 bp. A month ago (13 October) the same six-month gap was priced at +257 bp, so it has moved +14 bp since. That is market pricing, not a forecast.
Which side of EUR/CHF has the carry?
The euro: the ECB pays 2.50% against 0.00%, a gap of +250 bp. Holding the higher-yielding currency against the lower earns roughly that gap a year before costs, which is what the carry trade collects; a move in the exchange rate can outweigh it.
Where does this pricing come from?
Each bank's priced path comes from the market instrument behind it: Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model for ECB, Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model for SNB. The rate six or twelve months out is the one implied after the last meeting on or before that date. The month-ago figure is from our daily snapshot of the same curves.
More on EUR/CHF: EUR/CHF analysis · EUR/CHF retail sentiment · EUR/CHF seasonality · Euro outlook · Euro COT positioning · ECB rate expectations · Eurozone economic surprises · Swiss Franc outlook · Swiss Franc COT positioning · SNB rate expectations · Swiss economic surprises
Other rate differentials: EUR/USD −150 bp · USD/CHF +400 bp · EUR/GBP −150 bp · EUR/JPY +125 bp · EUR/AUD −235 bp · EUR/CAD 0 bp · EUR/NZD −25 bp · GBP/CHF +400 bp · AUD/CHF +485 bp · CHF/JPY −125 bp · all 28
In WatchTower Terminal, the Rate spread panel draws the EUR/CHF gap against the price. Nothing here is financial advice.