Rate differentials · Fed vs SNB · priced as of 12 November 2026
USD/CHF interest rate differential: Fed vs SNB
As of 12 November 2026, the USD/CHF interest rate differential is +400 bp: the Fed's federal funds rate at 4.00% against the SNB's policy rate at 0.00%, in favour of the US dollar. Markets price the gap at +437 bp in six months; there is no twelve-month figure, because the Fed curve reaches only July 2027.
Over the next six months, markets price the gap to move +37 bp over six months, towards the US dollar. That six-month gap has moved +20 bp in a month.
The rate spread, now and priced ahead
| Fed (USD) | SNB (CHF) | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Policy rate now | 4.00% | 0.00% | +400 bp |
| Priced in 6 months | 4.66% | 0.29% | +437 bp |
| Priced in 12 months | curve ends July 2027 | 0.51% | n/a |
| 6-month gap a month ago | 4.54% | 0.36% | +417 bp |
The gap is USD minus CHF, in basis points (100 bp is one percentage point). Six and twelve months out is the rate implied after each bank's last meeting on or before that date. Market pricing, not a forecast. Each bank's meeting-by-meeting odds: Fed · SNB.
The carry on USD/CHF
The US dollar: the Fed pays 4.00% against 0.00%, a gap of +400 bp. Holding the higher-yielding currency against the lower earns roughly that gap a year before costs, which is what the carry trade collects; a move in the exchange rate can outweigh it.
How the gap feeds the exchange rate, and when it does not: rate differentials explained and the carry trade explained.
Questions
What is the USD/CHF interest rate differential?
As of 12 November 2026, the USD/CHF interest rate differential is +400 bp: the Fed's federal funds rate at 4.00% against the SNB's policy rate at 0.00%, in favour of the US dollar. Markets price the gap at +437 bp in six months; there is no twelve-month figure, because the Fed curve reaches only July 2027.
Is the Fed–SNB gap priced to widen or narrow?
Markets price the gap to move +37 bp over six months, towards the US dollar, from +400 bp now to +437 bp. A month ago (13 October) the same six-month gap was priced at +417 bp, so it has moved +20 bp since. That is market pricing, not a forecast.
Which side of USD/CHF has the carry?
The US dollar: the Fed pays 4.00% against 0.00%, a gap of +400 bp. Holding the higher-yielding currency against the lower earns roughly that gap a year before costs, which is what the carry trade collects; a move in the exchange rate can outweigh it.
Where does this pricing come from?
Each bank's priced path comes from the market instrument behind it: Exchange-traded futures for Fed, Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model for SNB. The rate six or twelve months out is the one implied after the last meeting on or before that date. The month-ago figure is from our daily snapshot of the same curves.
More on USD/CHF: USD/CHF analysis · USD/CHF retail sentiment · USD/CHF seasonality · US Dollar outlook · US Dollar COT positioning · Fed rate expectations · US economic surprises · Swiss Franc outlook · Swiss Franc COT positioning · SNB rate expectations · Swiss economic surprises
Other rate differentials: EUR/USD −150 bp · GBP/USD 0 bp · USD/JPY +275 bp · AUD/USD +85 bp · USD/CAD +150 bp · NZD/USD −125 bp · EUR/CHF +250 bp · GBP/CHF +400 bp · AUD/CHF +485 bp · CHF/JPY −125 bp · all 28
In WatchTower Terminal, the Rate spread panel draws the USD/CHF gap against the price. Nothing here is financial advice.