Rate differentials · SNB vs BoJ · priced as of 12 November 2026
CHF/JPY interest rate differential: SNB vs BoJ
As of 12 November 2026, the CHF/JPY interest rate differential is −125 bp: the SNB's policy rate at 0.00% against the BoJ's policy rate at 1.25%, in favour of the yen. Markets price the gap at −142 bp in six months and −140 bp in twelve.
Over the next six months, markets price the gap to move −17 bp over six months, towards the yen. That six-month gap has moved −12 bp in a month.
The rate spread, now and priced ahead
| SNB (CHF) | BoJ (JPY) | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Policy rate now | 0.00% | 1.25% | −125 bp |
| Priced in 6 months | 0.29% | 1.71% | −142 bp |
| Priced in 12 months | 0.51% | 1.91% | −140 bp |
| 6-month gap a month ago | 0.36% | 1.66% | −130 bp |
The gap is CHF minus JPY, in basis points (100 bp is one percentage point). Six and twelve months out is the rate implied after each bank's last meeting on or before that date. Market pricing, not a forecast. Each bank's meeting-by-meeting odds: SNB · BoJ.
The carry on CHF/JPY
The yen: the Bank of Japan pays 1.25% against 0.00%, a gap of +125 bp. Holding the higher-yielding currency against the lower earns roughly that gap a year before costs, which is what the carry trade collects; a move in the exchange rate can outweigh it.
How the gap feeds the exchange rate, and when it does not: rate differentials explained and the carry trade explained.
Questions
What is the CHF/JPY interest rate differential?
As of 12 November 2026, the CHF/JPY interest rate differential is −125 bp: the SNB's policy rate at 0.00% against the BoJ's policy rate at 1.25%, in favour of the yen. Markets price the gap at −142 bp in six months and −140 bp in twelve.
Is the SNB–BoJ gap priced to widen or narrow?
Markets price the gap to move −17 bp over six months, towards the yen, from −125 bp now to −142 bp. A month ago (13 October) the same six-month gap was priced at −130 bp, so it has moved −12 bp since. That is market pricing, not a forecast.
Which side of CHF/JPY has the carry?
The yen: the Bank of Japan pays 1.25% against 0.00%, a gap of +125 bp. Holding the higher-yielding currency against the lower earns roughly that gap a year before costs, which is what the carry trade collects; a move in the exchange rate can outweigh it.
Where does this pricing come from?
Each bank's priced path comes from the market instrument behind it: Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model for SNB, Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model for BoJ. The rate six or twelve months out is the one implied after the last meeting on or before that date. The month-ago figure is from our daily snapshot of the same curves.
More on CHF/JPY: CHF/JPY analysis · CHF/JPY retail sentiment · CHF/JPY seasonality · Swiss Franc outlook · Swiss Franc COT positioning · SNB rate expectations · Swiss economic surprises · Japanese Yen outlook · Japanese Yen COT positioning · BoJ rate expectations · Japanese economic surprises
Other rate differentials: USD/JPY +275 bp · USD/CHF +400 bp · EUR/JPY +125 bp · EUR/CHF +250 bp · GBP/JPY +275 bp · GBP/CHF +400 bp · AUD/JPY +360 bp · AUD/CHF +485 bp · NZD/JPY +150 bp · CAD/JPY +125 bp · all 28
In WatchTower Terminal, the Rate spread panel draws the CHF/JPY gap against the price. Nothing here is financial advice.