Rate differentials · RBNZ vs BoJ · priced as of 12 November 2026
NZD/JPY interest rate differential: RBNZ vs BoJ
As of 12 November 2026, the NZD/JPY interest rate differential is +150 bp: the RBNZ's OCR at 2.75% against the BoJ's policy rate at 1.25%, in favour of the New Zealand dollar. Markets price the gap at +172 bp in six months and +178 bp in twelve.
Over the next six months, markets price the gap to move +22 bp over six months, towards the New Zealand dollar. That six-month gap has moved −17 bp in a month.
The rate spread, now and priced ahead
| RBNZ (NZD) | BoJ (JPY) | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Policy rate now | 2.75% | 1.25% | +150 bp |
| Priced in 6 months | 3.43% | 1.71% | +172 bp |
| Priced in 12 months | 3.69% | 1.91% | +178 bp |
| 6-month gap a month ago | 3.55% | 1.66% | +189 bp |
The gap is NZD minus JPY, in basis points (100 bp is one percentage point). Six and twelve months out is the rate implied after each bank's last meeting on or before that date. Market pricing, not a forecast. Each bank's meeting-by-meeting odds: RBNZ · BoJ.
The carry on NZD/JPY
The New Zealand dollar: the RBNZ pays 2.75% against 1.25%, a gap of +150 bp. Holding the higher-yielding currency against the lower earns roughly that gap a year before costs, which is what the carry trade collects; a move in the exchange rate can outweigh it.
How the gap feeds the exchange rate, and when it does not: rate differentials explained and the carry trade explained.
Questions
What is the NZD/JPY interest rate differential?
As of 12 November 2026, the NZD/JPY interest rate differential is +150 bp: the RBNZ's OCR at 2.75% against the BoJ's policy rate at 1.25%, in favour of the New Zealand dollar. Markets price the gap at +172 bp in six months and +178 bp in twelve.
Is the RBNZ–BoJ gap priced to widen or narrow?
Markets price the gap to move +22 bp over six months, towards the New Zealand dollar, from +150 bp now to +172 bp. A month ago (13 October) the same six-month gap was priced at +189 bp, so it has moved −17 bp since. That is market pricing, not a forecast.
Which side of NZD/JPY has the carry?
The New Zealand dollar: the RBNZ pays 2.75% against 1.25%, a gap of +150 bp. Holding the higher-yielding currency against the lower earns roughly that gap a year before costs, which is what the carry trade collects; a move in the exchange rate can outweigh it.
Where does this pricing come from?
Each bank's priced path comes from the market instrument behind it: Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model for RBNZ, Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model for BoJ. The rate six or twelve months out is the one implied after the last meeting on or before that date. The month-ago figure is from our daily snapshot of the same curves.
More on NZD/JPY: NZD/JPY analysis · NZD/JPY retail sentiment · NZD/JPY seasonality · New Zealand Dollar outlook · New Zealand Dollar COT positioning · RBNZ rate expectations · New Zealand economic surprises · Japanese Yen outlook · Japanese Yen COT positioning · BoJ rate expectations · Japanese economic surprises
Other rate differentials: USD/JPY +275 bp · NZD/USD −125 bp · EUR/JPY +125 bp · EUR/NZD −25 bp · GBP/JPY +275 bp · GBP/NZD +125 bp · AUD/JPY +360 bp · AUD/NZD +210 bp · CAD/JPY +125 bp · CHF/JPY −125 bp · all 28
In WatchTower Terminal, the Rate spread panel draws the NZD/JPY gap against the price. Nothing here is financial advice.