Seasonality · NZD/JPY · 12 November 2026
NZD/JPY seasonality: is November bullish for NZD/JPY?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), NZD/JPY rose in November 10 times, with an average move of +2.12% and a median of +2.23%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 10 of 15 years, +0.78% on average (median +0.72%).
Its best month on average is November (+2.12%, up in 10 of 14) and its worst is August (−1.36%, up in 6 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | −0.25% | +0.69% | 9 of 15 | +7.01% (2013) | −8.90% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| February | +0.46% | +0.30% | 9 of 15 | +8.18% (2012) | −4.83% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| March | +0.31% | −0.45% | 6 of 15 | +8.18% (2022) | −4.90% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| April | +0.25% | +0.11% | 8 of 15 | +6.29% (2013) | −4.12% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| May | −0.66% | −0.34% | 7 of 15 | +3.58% (2024) | −9.67% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| June | +0.84% | +1.66% | 9 of 15 | +8.71% (2012) | −6.13% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| July | −0.50% | −0.19% | 7 of 15 | +1.64% (2013) | −8.81% (2024) | 2012–2026 |
| August | −1.36% | −0.71% | 6 of 15 | +1.87% (2024) | −6.54% (2019) | 2012–2026 |
| September | +0.17% | −0.56% | 7 of 15 | +7.76% (2013) | −6.17% (2026) | 2012–2026 |
| October | +1.26% | +1.69% | 9 of 15 | +6.67% (2015) | −4.36% (2017) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | +2.12% | +2.23% | 10 of 14 | +7.68% (2016) | −5.75% (2021) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | +0.78% | +0.72% | 10 of 15 | +5.81% (2012) | −5.75% (2018) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
NZD/JPY in November, year by year
| November 2025 | +1.53% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | −1.90% |
| November 2023 | +3.50% |
| November 2022 | +0.57% |
| November 2021 | −5.75% |
| November 2020 | +6.00% |
| November 2019 | +1.36% |
| November 2018 | +6.00% |
| November 2017 | −1.17% |
| November 2016 | +7.68% |
| November 2015 | −0.81% |
| November 2014 | +6.71% |
| November 2013 | +2.92% |
| November 2012 | +3.01% |
Questions
Is November bullish for NZD/JPY?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), NZD/JPY rose in November 10 times, with an average move of +2.12% and a median of +2.23%. That is a bullish lean; the range runs from −5.75% (2021) to +7.68% (2016). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for NZD/JPY?
Its best month on average is November (+2.12%, up in 10 of 14) and its worst is August (−1.36%, up in 6 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end.
What happens to NZD/JPY in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 10 of 15 years, +0.78% on average (median +0.72%).
How reliable is NZD/JPY seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on NZD/JPY: NZD/JPY analysis · NZD/JPY rate differential · NZD/JPY retail sentiment · New Zealand Dollar outlook · New Zealand Dollar COT positioning · RBNZ rate expectations · New Zealand economic surprises · Japanese Yen outlook · Japanese Yen COT positioning · BoJ rate expectations · Japanese economic surprises
Other seasonality: USD/JPY in Nov +1.13% · NZD/USD in Nov +1.04% · EUR/JPY in Nov +0.96% · EUR/NZD in Nov −1.09% · GBP/JPY in Nov +1.68% · GBP/NZD in Nov −0.40% · AUD/JPY in Nov +1.10% · AUD/NZD in Nov −0.97% · CAD/JPY in Nov +0.79% · CHF/JPY in Nov +1.23% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the NZD/JPY path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.