Seasonality · AUD/JPY · 12 November 2026
AUD/JPY seasonality: is November bullish for AUD/JPY?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), AUD/JPY rose in November 9 times, with an average move of +1.10% and a median of +1.72%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 7 of 15 years, +0.20% on average (median −0.04%).
Its best month on average is October (+1.32%, up in 11 of 15) and its worst is July (−0.71%, up in 7 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | −0.23% | +0.32% | 9 of 15 | +5.76% (2013) | −6.94% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| February | +0.25% | +0.78% | 9 of 15 | +8.03% (2012) | −5.70% (2018) | 2012–2026 |
| March | +0.58% | −0.56% | 6 of 15 | +8.96% (2022) | −6.00% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| April | +0.56% | +0.93% | 9 of 15 | +5.67% (2020) | −5.72% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| May | −0.65% | +0.20% | 8 of 15 | +2.61% (2020) | −8.49% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| June | +0.96% | +0.90% | 9 of 15 | +7.45% (2012) | −6.14% (2013) | 2012–2026 |
| July | −0.71% | −0.55% | 7 of 15 | +2.19% (2017) | −8.52% (2024) | 2012–2026 |
| August | −0.63% | −0.71% | 5 of 15 | +3.26% (2020) | −5.26% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| September | +0.14% | +0.22% | 9 of 15 | +5.03% (2013) | −4.50% (2026) | 2012–2026 |
| October | +1.32% | +2.02% | 11 of 15 | +6.26% (2021) | −2.88% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | +1.10% | +1.72% | 9 of 14 | +5.62% (2016) | −6.29% (2021) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | +0.20% | −0.04% | 7 of 15 | +4.61% (2012) | −6.88% (2018) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
AUD/JPY in November, year by year
| November 2025 | +1.47% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | −1.83% |
| November 2023 | +1.98% |
| November 2022 | −1.53% |
| November 2021 | −6.29% |
| November 2020 | +4.51% |
| November 2019 | −0.57% |
| November 2018 | +3.74% |
| November 2017 | −2.41% |
| November 2016 | +5.62% |
| November 2015 | +3.55% |
| November 2014 | +2.68% |
| November 2013 | +0.62% |
| November 2012 | +3.84% |
Questions
Is November bullish for AUD/JPY?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), AUD/JPY rose in November 9 times, with an average move of +1.10% and a median of +1.72%. That is a bullish lean; the range runs from −6.29% (2021) to +5.62% (2016). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for AUD/JPY?
Its best month on average is October (+1.32%, up in 11 of 15) and its worst is July (−0.71%, up in 7 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end.
What happens to AUD/JPY in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 7 of 15 years, +0.20% on average (median −0.04%).
How reliable is AUD/JPY seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on AUD/JPY: AUD/JPY analysis · AUD/JPY rate differential · AUD/JPY retail sentiment · Australian Dollar outlook · Australian Dollar COT positioning · RBA rate expectations · Australian economic surprises · Japanese Yen outlook · Japanese Yen COT positioning · BoJ rate expectations · Japanese economic surprises
Other seasonality: USD/JPY in Nov +1.13% · AUD/USD in Nov +0.03% · EUR/JPY in Nov +0.96% · EUR/AUD in Nov −0.10% · GBP/JPY in Nov +1.68% · GBP/AUD in Nov +0.59% · AUD/NZD in Nov −0.97% · AUD/CAD in Nov +0.34% · AUD/CHF in Nov −0.11% · NZD/JPY in Nov +2.12% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the AUD/JPY path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.