Seasonality · AUD/CAD · 12 November 2026
AUD/CAD seasonality: is November bullish for AUD/CAD?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), AUD/CAD rose in November 5 times, with an average move of +0.34% and a median of −0.12%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 7 of 15 years, +0.17% on average (median −0.07%).
Its best month on average is January (+0.62%, up in 9 of 15) and its worst is May (−0.61%, up in 6 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.62% | +1.33% | 9 of 15 | +4.10% (2015) | −3.33% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| February | +0.04% | −0.12% | 7 of 15 | +3.06% (2017) | −2.82% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| March | +0.04% | −0.07% | 7 of 15 | +3.62% (2014) | −2.60% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| April | −0.61% | −0.90% | 4 of 15 | +4.66% (2020) | −4.06% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| May | −0.61% | −0.64% | 6 of 15 | +1.55% (2024) | −4.93% (2013) | 2012–2026 |
| June | +0.04% | −0.17% | 7 of 15 | +3.79% (2012) | −2.99% (2013) | 2012–2026 |
| July | −0.14% | +0.12% | 8 of 15 | +2.48% (2016) | −4.37% (2013) | 2012–2026 |
| August | −0.30% | +0.17% | 8 of 15 | +1.95% (2013) | −3.28% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| September | +0.03% | −0.29% | 6 of 15 | +2.63% (2024) | −3.49% (2014) | 2012–2026 |
| October | +0.21% | +0.64% | 8 of 15 | +2.81% (2013) | −2.54% (2024) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | +0.34% | −0.12% | 5 of 14 | +4.32% (2018) | −2.78% (2016) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | +0.17% | −0.07% | 7 of 15 | +4.54% (2015) | −2.65% (2014) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
AUD/CAD in November, year by year
| November 2025 | −0.17% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | −0.03% |
| November 2023 | +2.26% |
| November 2022 | +4.27% |
| November 2021 | −2.46% |
| November 2020 | +1.92% |
| November 2019 | −0.73% |
| November 2018 | +4.32% |
| November 2017 | −1.33% |
| November 2016 | −2.78% |
| November 2015 | +3.37% |
| November 2014 | −1.71% |
| November 2013 | −2.10% |
| November 2012 | −0.07% |
Questions
Is November bullish for AUD/CAD?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), AUD/CAD rose in November 5 times, with an average move of +0.34% and a median of −0.12%. That is no clear lean; the range runs from −2.78% (2016) to +4.32% (2018). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for AUD/CAD?
Its best month on average is January (+0.62%, up in 9 of 15) and its worst is May (−0.61%, up in 6 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end.
What happens to AUD/CAD in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 7 of 15 years, +0.17% on average (median −0.07%).
How reliable is AUD/CAD seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on AUD/CAD: AUD/CAD analysis · AUD/CAD rate differential · AUD/CAD retail sentiment · Australian Dollar outlook · Australian Dollar COT positioning · RBA rate expectations · Australian economic surprises · Canadian Dollar outlook · Canadian Dollar COT positioning · BoC rate expectations · Canadian economic surprises
Other seasonality: AUD/USD in Nov +0.03% · USD/CAD in Nov +0.34% · EUR/AUD in Nov −0.10% · EUR/CAD in Nov +0.20% · GBP/AUD in Nov +0.59% · GBP/CAD in Nov +0.88% · AUD/JPY in Nov +1.10% · AUD/NZD in Nov −0.97% · AUD/CHF in Nov −0.11% · CAD/JPY in Nov +0.79% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the AUD/CAD path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.