Seasonality · GBP/CAD · 12 November 2026
GBP/CAD seasonality: is November bullish for GBP/CAD?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), GBP/CAD rose in November 10 times, with an average move of +0.88% and a median of +0.80%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 10 of 15 years, +0.39% on average (median +0.92%).
Its best month on average is November (+0.88%, up in 10 of 14) and its worst is June (−0.71%, up in 7 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.67% | +0.54% | 9 of 15 | +5.73% (2015) | −2.18% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| February | −0.21% | +0.39% | 9 of 15 | +1.45% (2014) | −5.67% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| March | +0.05% | −0.17% | 7 of 15 | +2.64% (2020) | −3.38% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| April | +0.07% | +0.36% | 8 of 15 | +5.89% (2017) | −2.52% (2018) | 2012–2026 |
| May | −0.26% | −0.61% | 7 of 15 | +3.69% (2016) | −2.96% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| June | −0.71% | −0.14% | 7 of 15 | +2.94% (2015) | −9.47% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| July | +0.03% | +0.33% | 8 of 15 | +4.38% (2020) | −3.43% (2019) | 2012–2026 |
| August | −0.13% | −0.41% | 5 of 15 | +4.56% (2013) | −2.23% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| September | +0.31% | +0.42% | 9 of 15 | +3.94% (2017) | −3.60% (2023) | 2012–2026 |
| October | +0.24% | −0.22% | 7 of 15 | +4.37% (2019) | −4.11% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | +0.88% | +0.80% | 10 of 14 | +3.54% (2013) | −1.15% (2012) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | +0.39% | +0.92% | 10 of 15 | +2.65% (2018) | −2.68% (2017) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
GBP/CAD in November, year by year
| November 2025 | +0.49% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | −0.69% |
| November 2023 | +1.98% |
| November 2022 | +3.11% |
| November 2021 | +0.07% |
| November 2020 | +0.42% |
| November 2019 | +1.12% |
| November 2018 | +1.11% |
| November 2017 | +1.61% |
| November 2016 | +2.37% |
| November 2015 | −0.73% |
| November 2014 | −0.92% |
| November 2013 | +3.54% |
| November 2012 | −1.15% |
Questions
Is November bullish for GBP/CAD?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), GBP/CAD rose in November 10 times, with an average move of +0.88% and a median of +0.80%. That is a bullish lean; the range runs from −1.15% (2012) to +3.54% (2013). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for GBP/CAD?
Its best month on average is November (+0.88%, up in 10 of 14) and its worst is June (−0.71%, up in 7 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end.
What happens to GBP/CAD in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 10 of 15 years, +0.39% on average (median +0.92%).
How reliable is GBP/CAD seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on GBP/CAD: GBP/CAD analysis · GBP/CAD rate differential · GBP/CAD retail sentiment · British Pound outlook · British Pound COT positioning · BoE rate expectations · UK economic surprises · Canadian Dollar outlook · Canadian Dollar COT positioning · BoC rate expectations · Canadian economic surprises
Other seasonality: GBP/USD in Nov +0.56% · USD/CAD in Nov +0.34% · EUR/GBP in Nov −0.67% · EUR/CAD in Nov +0.20% · GBP/JPY in Nov +1.68% · GBP/CHF in Nov +0.43% · GBP/AUD in Nov +0.59% · GBP/NZD in Nov −0.40% · AUD/CAD in Nov +0.34% · CAD/JPY in Nov +0.79% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the GBP/CAD path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.