Seasonality · GBP/USD · 12 November 2026
GBP/USD seasonality: is November bullish for GBP/USD?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), GBP/USD rose in November 7 times, with an average move of +0.56% and a median of +0.37%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 9 of 15 years, +0.47% on average (median +0.81%).
Its best month on average is April (+1.03%, up in 11 of 15) and its worst is May (−0.97%, up in 4 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.23% | −0.08% | 7 of 15 | +4.89% (2018) | −3.81% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| February | −0.56% | −0.79% | 6 of 15 | +2.75% (2015) | −4.19% (2013) | 2012–2026 |
| March | −0.19% | +0.01% | 8 of 15 | +3.27% (2016) | −3.81% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| April | +1.03% | +1.50% | 11 of 15 | +3.47% (2025) | −4.46% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| May | −0.97% | −0.70% | 4 of 15 | +2.53% (2021) | −5.05% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| June | −0.35% | +0.40% | 9 of 15 | +2.88% (2015) | −8.86% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| July | +0.21% | +0.17% | 8 of 15 | +6.18% (2020) | −3.81% (2019) | 2012–2026 |
| August | −0.38% | −1.06% | 6 of 15 | +2.27% (2024) | −4.40% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| September | −0.43% | −0.87% | 6 of 15 | +4.60% (2013) | −4.41% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| October | −0.32% | −0.65% | 6 of 15 | +5.15% (2019) | −6.17% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | +0.56% | +0.37% | 7 of 14 | +4.16% (2023) | −3.17% (2021) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | +0.47% | +0.81% | 9 of 15 | +2.55% (2019) | −1.98% (2015) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
GBP/USD in November, year by year
| November 2025 | +0.75% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | −1.22% |
| November 2023 | +4.16% |
| November 2022 | +3.88% |
| November 2021 | −3.17% |
| November 2020 | +3.13% |
| November 2019 | 0.00% |
| November 2018 | −0.06% |
| November 2017 | +1.69% |
| November 2016 | +2.20% |
| November 2015 | −2.60% |
| November 2014 | −2.26% |
| November 2013 | +1.90% |
| November 2012 | −0.52% |
Questions
Is November bullish for GBP/USD?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), GBP/USD rose in November 7 times, with an average move of +0.56% and a median of +0.37%. That is no clear lean; the range runs from −3.17% (2021) to +4.16% (2023). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for GBP/USD?
Its best month on average is April (+1.03%, up in 11 of 15) and its worst is May (−0.97%, up in 4 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end.
What happens to GBP/USD in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 9 of 15 years, +0.47% on average (median +0.81%).
How reliable is GBP/USD seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on GBP/USD: GBP/USD analysis · GBP/USD rate differential · GBP/USD retail sentiment · British Pound outlook · British Pound COT positioning · BoE rate expectations · UK economic surprises · US Dollar outlook · US Dollar COT positioning · Fed rate expectations · US economic surprises
Other seasonality: EUR/GBP in Nov −0.67% · GBP/JPY in Nov +1.68% · GBP/CHF in Nov +0.43% · GBP/AUD in Nov +0.59% · GBP/CAD in Nov +0.88% · GBP/NZD in Nov −0.40% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the GBP/USD path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.