Seasonality · EUR/GBP · 12 November 2026
EUR/GBP seasonality: is November bullish for EUR/GBP?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), EUR/GBP rose in November 5 times, with an average move of −0.67% and a median of −0.38%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 7 of 15 years, +0.21% on average (median −0.07%).
Its best month on average is June (+0.79%, up in 9 of 15) and its worst is November (−0.67%, up in 5 of 14).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | −0.30% | −0.77% | 4 of 15 | +5.66% (2013) | −3.27% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| February | +0.05% | +0.35% | 9 of 15 | +2.51% (2020) | −3.48% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| March | +0.08% | −0.13% | 7 of 15 | +2.74% (2020) | −2.02% (2013) | 2012–2026 |
| April | −0.31% | −0.23% | 4 of 15 | +2.13% (2021) | −2.25% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| May | +0.17% | −0.27% | 7 of 15 | +3.91% (2020) | −2.05% (2023) | 2012–2026 |
| June | +0.79% | +0.62% | 9 of 15 | +8.71% (2016) | −1.63% (2014) | 2012–2026 |
| July | −0.08% | −0.53% | 6 of 15 | +2.31% (2013) | −2.79% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| August | +0.55% | +0.26% | 10 of 15 | +3.29% (2015) | −2.52% (2013) | 2012–2026 |
| September | −0.20% | +0.13% | 8 of 15 | +1.71% (2016) | −4.49% (2017) | 2012–2026 |
| October | −0.33% | −0.40% | 7 of 15 | +3.96% (2016) | −3.18% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | −0.67% | −0.38% | 5 of 14 | +1.56% (2014) | −5.58% (2016) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | +0.21% | −0.07% | 7 of 15 | +4.89% (2015) | −2.52% (2011) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
EUR/GBP in November, year by year
| November 2025 | −0.23% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | −1.64% |
| November 2023 | −0.91% |
| November 2022 | +0.53% |
| November 2021 | +0.91% |
| November 2020 | −0.53% |
| November 2019 | −1.22% |
| November 2018 | −0.02% |
| November 2017 | +0.44% |
| November 2016 | −5.58% |
| November 2015 | −1.80% |
| November 2014 | +1.56% |
| November 2013 | −1.78% |
| November 2012 | +0.93% |
Questions
Is November bullish for EUR/GBP?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), EUR/GBP rose in November 5 times, with an average move of −0.67% and a median of −0.38%. That is a bearish lean; the range runs from −5.58% (2016) to +1.56% (2014). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for EUR/GBP?
Its best month on average is June (+0.79%, up in 9 of 15) and its worst is November (−0.67%, up in 5 of 14). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end.
What happens to EUR/GBP in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 7 of 15 years, +0.21% on average (median −0.07%).
How reliable is EUR/GBP seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on EUR/GBP: EUR/GBP analysis · EUR/GBP rate differential · EUR/GBP retail sentiment · Euro outlook · Euro COT positioning · ECB rate expectations · Eurozone economic surprises · British Pound outlook · British Pound COT positioning · BoE rate expectations · UK economic surprises
Other seasonality: EUR/USD in Nov −0.12% · GBP/USD in Nov +0.56% · EUR/JPY in Nov +0.96% · EUR/CHF in Nov −0.27% · EUR/AUD in Nov −0.10% · EUR/CAD in Nov +0.20% · EUR/NZD in Nov −1.09% · GBP/JPY in Nov +1.68% · GBP/CHF in Nov +0.43% · GBP/AUD in Nov +0.59% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the EUR/GBP path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.