Seasonality · EUR/JPY · 12 November 2026
EUR/JPY seasonality: is November bullish for EUR/JPY?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), EUR/JPY rose in November 10 times, with an average move of +0.96% and a median of +0.86%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 10 of 15 years, +0.60% on average (median +1.19%).
Its best month on average is October (+0.97%, up in 10 of 15) and its worst is July (−0.65%, up in 7 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | −0.50% | −0.32% | 6 of 15 | +8.54% (2013) | −8.58% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| February | +0.04% | +0.57% | 9 of 15 | +8.72% (2012) | −6.42% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| March | +0.61% | +0.50% | 10 of 15 | +4.36% (2016) | −3.88% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| April | +0.92% | +0.84% | 11 of 15 | +6.41% (2013) | −4.48% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| May | −0.14% | +1.07% | 10 of 15 | +2.46% (2017) | −8.32% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| June | +0.93% | +1.17% | 9 of 15 | +5.94% (2023) | −8.06% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| July | −0.65% | −0.68% | 7 of 15 | +3.26% (2020) | −5.55% (2024) | 2012–2026 |
| August | +0.06% | −0.20% | 7 of 15 | +2.68% (2022) | −3.34% (2019) | 2012–2026 |
| September | +0.19% | +0.93% | 9 of 15 | +2.64% (2013) | −3.86% (2026) | 2012–2026 |
| October | +0.97% | +1.26% | 10 of 15 | +3.78% (2022) | −3.03% (2018) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | +0.96% | +0.86% | 10 of 14 | +5.12% (2014) | −4.07% (2024) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | +0.60% | +1.19% | 10 of 15 | +6.39% (2012) | −4.31% (2011) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
EUR/JPY in November, year by year
| November 2025 | +1.89% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | −4.07% |
| November 2023 | +0.77% |
| November 2022 | −2.12% |
| November 2021 | −2.99% |
| November 2020 | +2.43% |
| November 2019 | +0.04% |
| November 2018 | +0.52% |
| November 2017 | +0.95% |
| November 2016 | +5.01% |
| November 2015 | −2.35% |
| November 2014 | +5.12% |
| November 2013 | +4.53% |
| November 2012 | +3.67% |
Questions
Is November bullish for EUR/JPY?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), EUR/JPY rose in November 10 times, with an average move of +0.96% and a median of +0.86%. That is a bullish lean; the range runs from −4.07% (2024) to +5.12% (2014). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for EUR/JPY?
Its best month on average is October (+0.97%, up in 10 of 15) and its worst is July (−0.65%, up in 7 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end.
What happens to EUR/JPY in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 10 of 15 years, +0.60% on average (median +1.19%).
How reliable is EUR/JPY seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on EUR/JPY: EUR/JPY analysis · EUR/JPY rate differential · EUR/JPY retail sentiment · Euro outlook · Euro COT positioning · ECB rate expectations · Eurozone economic surprises · Japanese Yen outlook · Japanese Yen COT positioning · BoJ rate expectations · Japanese economic surprises
Other seasonality: EUR/USD in Nov −0.12% · USD/JPY in Nov +1.13% · EUR/GBP in Nov −0.67% · EUR/CHF in Nov −0.27% · EUR/AUD in Nov −0.10% · EUR/CAD in Nov +0.20% · EUR/NZD in Nov −1.09% · GBP/JPY in Nov +1.68% · AUD/JPY in Nov +1.10% · NZD/JPY in Nov +2.12% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the EUR/JPY path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.