Seasonality · USD/JPY · 12 November 2026
USD/JPY seasonality: is November bullish for USD/JPY?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), USD/JPY rose in November 8 times, with an average move of +1.13% and a median of +0.94%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 8 of 15 years, −0.04% on average (median +0.35%).
Its best month on average is October (+1.70%, up in 11 of 15) and its worst is July (−0.74%, up in 5 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | −0.41% | −0.83% | 5 of 15 | +5.36% (2013) | −3.48% (2017) | 2012–2026 |
| February | +0.57% | +1.11% | 8 of 15 | +6.24% (2012) | −6.73% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| March | +0.74% | +0.20% | 8 of 15 | +5.50% (2022) | −2.45% (2023) | 2012–2026 |
| April | +0.24% | −0.08% | 7 of 15 | +6.92% (2022) | −4.91% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| May | +0.67% | +0.46% | 8 of 15 | +3.60% (2016) | −2.46% (2019) | 2012–2026 |
| June | +0.55% | +1.11% | 8 of 15 | +5.57% (2022) | −7.21% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| July | −0.74% | −1.22% | 5 of 15 | +4.46% (2025) | −6.53% (2024) | 2012–2026 |
| August | −0.07% | +0.06% | 8 of 15 | +4.08% (2022) | −2.95% (2024) | 2012–2026 |
| September | +0.89% | +0.73% | 9 of 15 | +5.44% (2014) | −2.10% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| October | +1.70% | +1.36% | 11 of 15 | +6.35% (2024) | −0.98% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | +1.13% | +0.94% | 8 of 14 | +8.82% (2016) | −6.27% (2022) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | −0.04% | +0.35% | 8 of 15 | +4.97% (2012) | −5.38% (2022) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
USD/JPY in November, year by year
| November 2025 | +1.38% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | −1.27% |
| November 2023 | −2.37% |
| November 2022 | −6.27% |
| November 2021 | −0.71% |
| November 2020 | −0.15% |
| November 2019 | +1.28% |
| November 2018 | +0.60% |
| November 2017 | −1.17% |
| November 2016 | +8.82% |
| November 2015 | +2.09% |
| November 2014 | +5.90% |
| November 2013 | +4.43% |
| November 2012 | +3.25% |
Questions
Is November bullish for USD/JPY?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), USD/JPY rose in November 8 times, with an average move of +1.13% and a median of +0.94%. That is no clear lean; the range runs from −6.27% (2022) to +8.82% (2016). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for USD/JPY?
Its best month on average is October (+1.70%, up in 11 of 15) and its worst is July (−0.74%, up in 5 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end.
What happens to USD/JPY in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 8 of 15 years, −0.04% on average (median +0.35%).
How reliable is USD/JPY seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
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Other seasonality: EUR/JPY in Nov +0.96% · GBP/JPY in Nov +1.68% · AUD/JPY in Nov +1.10% · NZD/JPY in Nov +2.12% · CAD/JPY in Nov +0.79% · CHF/JPY in Nov +1.23% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the USD/JPY path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.