Seasonality · CAD/JPY · 12 November 2026
CAD/JPY seasonality: is November bullish for CAD/JPY?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), CAD/JPY rose in November 8 times, with an average move of +0.79% and a median of +0.17%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 9 of 15 years, +0.05% on average (median +1.79%).
Its best month on average is April (+1.18%, up in 11 of 15) and its worst is January (−0.80%, up in 7 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | −0.80% | −0.44% | 7 of 15 | +5.00% (2013) | −10.60% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| February | +0.22% | +0.17% | 9 of 15 | +8.22% (2012) | −6.37% (2018) | 2012–2026 |
| March | +0.53% | −0.12% | 7 of 15 | +7.02% (2022) | −5.56% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| April | +1.18% | +0.97% | 11 of 15 | +4.62% (2013) | −2.52% (2017) | 2012–2026 |
| May | −0.04% | +0.52% | 11 of 15 | +2.51% (2023) | −6.29% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| June | +0.92% | +1.30% | 10 of 15 | +6.13% (2023) | −6.58% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| July | −0.57% | −0.53% | 5 of 15 | +2.76% (2025) | −7.35% (2024) | 2012–2026 |
| August | −0.33% | −0.49% | 6 of 15 | +2.74% (2020) | −3.46% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| September | +0.12% | −0.23% | 7 of 15 | +3.44% (2018) | −3.97% (2026) | 2012–2026 |
| October | +1.11% | +1.58% | 10 of 15 | +4.55% (2021) | −2.13% (2017) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | +0.79% | +0.17% | 8 of 14 | +8.64% (2016) | −5.57% (2022) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | +0.05% | +1.79% | 9 of 15 | +4.68% (2012) | −5.97% (2015) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
CAD/JPY in November, year by year
| November 2025 | +1.64% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | −1.80% |
| November 2023 | −0.28% |
| November 2022 | −5.57% |
| November 2021 | −3.93% |
| November 2020 | +2.54% |
| November 2019 | +0.16% |
| November 2018 | −0.56% |
| November 2017 | −1.09% |
| November 2016 | +8.64% |
| November 2015 | +0.17% |
| November 2014 | +4.47% |
| November 2013 | +2.78% |
| November 2012 | +3.91% |
Questions
Is November bullish for CAD/JPY?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), CAD/JPY rose in November 8 times, with an average move of +0.79% and a median of +0.17%. That is no clear lean; the range runs from −5.57% (2022) to +8.64% (2016). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for CAD/JPY?
Its best month on average is April (+1.18%, up in 11 of 15) and its worst is January (−0.80%, up in 7 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end.
What happens to CAD/JPY in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 9 of 15 years, +0.05% on average (median +1.79%).
How reliable is CAD/JPY seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on CAD/JPY: CAD/JPY analysis · CAD/JPY rate differential · CAD/JPY retail sentiment · Canadian Dollar outlook · Canadian Dollar COT positioning · BoC rate expectations · Canadian economic surprises · Japanese Yen outlook · Japanese Yen COT positioning · BoJ rate expectations · Japanese economic surprises
Other seasonality: USD/JPY in Nov +1.13% · USD/CAD in Nov +0.34% · EUR/JPY in Nov +0.96% · EUR/CAD in Nov +0.20% · GBP/JPY in Nov +1.68% · GBP/CAD in Nov +0.88% · AUD/JPY in Nov +1.10% · AUD/CAD in Nov +0.34% · NZD/JPY in Nov +2.12% · CHF/JPY in Nov +1.23% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the CAD/JPY path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.