Seasonality · USD/CAD · 12 November 2026
USD/CAD seasonality: is November bullish for USD/CAD?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), USD/CAD rose in November 8 times, with an average move of +0.34% and a median of +0.35%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 7 of 15 years, −0.06% on average (median −0.04%).
Its best month on average is September (+0.79%, up in 8 of 15) and its worst is April (−0.93%, up in 5 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.48% | +0.18% | 8 of 15 | +9.61% (2015) | −3.69% (2019) | 2012–2026 |
| February | +0.38% | +0.20% | 8 of 15 | +4.17% (2018) | −3.92% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| March | +0.26% | −0.20% | 7 of 15 | +5.31% (2020) | −4.09% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| April | −0.93% | −1.00% | 5 of 15 | +2.61% (2017) | −4.46% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| May | +0.74% | +0.27% | 8 of 15 | +4.68% (2012) | −1.66% (2021) | 2012–2026 |
| June | −0.34% | −0.67% | 7 of 15 | +3.06% (2026) | −3.82% (2017) | 2012–2026 |
| July | −0.16% | −0.54% | 7 of 15 | +4.60% (2015) | −3.79% (2017) | 2012–2026 |
| August | +0.27% | +0.42% | 9 of 15 | +2.88% (2023) | −2.62% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| September | +0.79% | +0.13% | 8 of 15 | +5.05% (2022) | −2.56% (2013) | 2012–2026 |
| October | +0.60% | +0.60% | 10 of 15 | +3.17% (2024) | −2.34% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | +0.34% | +0.35% | 8 of 14 | +3.35% (2021) | −2.63% (2020) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | −0.06% | −0.04% | 7 of 15 | +3.80% (2015) | −2.85% (2017) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
USD/CAD in November, year by year
| November 2025 | −0.26% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | +0.54% |
| November 2023 | −2.10% |
| November 2022 | −0.74% |
| November 2021 | +3.35% |
| November 2020 | −2.63% |
| November 2019 | +1.12% |
| November 2018 | +1.17% |
| November 2017 | −0.08% |
| November 2016 | +0.16% |
| November 2015 | +1.91% |
| November 2014 | +1.37% |
| November 2013 | +1.61% |
| November 2012 | −0.63% |
Questions
Is November bullish for USD/CAD?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), USD/CAD rose in November 8 times, with an average move of +0.34% and a median of +0.35%. That is no clear lean; the range runs from −2.63% (2020) to +3.35% (2021). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for USD/CAD?
Its best month on average is September (+0.79%, up in 8 of 15) and its worst is April (−0.93%, up in 5 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end.
What happens to USD/CAD in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 7 of 15 years, −0.06% on average (median −0.04%).
How reliable is USD/CAD seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on USD/CAD: USD/CAD analysis · USD/CAD rate differential · USD/CAD retail sentiment · US Dollar outlook · US Dollar COT positioning · Fed rate expectations · US economic surprises · Canadian Dollar outlook · Canadian Dollar COT positioning · BoC rate expectations · Canadian economic surprises
Other seasonality: EUR/CAD in Nov +0.20% · GBP/CAD in Nov +0.88% · AUD/CAD in Nov +0.34% · CAD/JPY in Nov +0.79% · CAD/CHF in Nov −0.44% · NZD/CAD in Nov +1.35% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the USD/CAD path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.