Seasonality · EUR/CAD · 12 November 2026
EUR/CAD seasonality: is November bullish for EUR/CAD?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), EUR/CAD rose in November 8 times, with an average move of +0.20% and a median of +0.44%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 8 of 15 years, +0.60% on average (median +0.00%).
Its best month on average is December (+0.60%, up in 8 of 15) and its worst is April (−0.25%, up in 7 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.33% | +0.13% | 9 of 15 | +3.37% (2013) | −3.71% (2019) | 2012–2026 |
| February | −0.17% | −0.15% | 7 of 15 | +2.35% (2018) | −3.60% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| March | +0.13% | +0.13% | 8 of 15 | +5.45% (2020) | −3.87% (2021) | 2012–2026 |
| April | −0.25% | −0.21% | 7 of 15 | +4.50% (2017) | −2.81% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| May | −0.11% | +0.54% | 9 of 15 | +1.84% (2017) | −3.24% (2023) | 2012–2026 |
| June | +0.02% | −0.26% | 6 of 15 | +2.77% (2025) | −2.33% (2017) | 2012–2026 |
| July | −0.07% | −0.24% | 6 of 15 | +3.43% (2020) | −4.47% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| August | +0.41% | +0.59% | 9 of 15 | +2.87% (2015) | −2.07% (2014) | 2012–2026 |
| September | +0.09% | +0.11% | 8 of 15 | +2.11% (2022) | −2.38% (2023) | 2012–2026 |
| October | −0.12% | −0.20% | 7 of 15 | +2.40% (2012) | −3.39% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | +0.20% | +0.44% | 8 of 14 | +3.66% (2022) | −3.34% (2016) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | +0.60% | +0.00% | 8 of 15 | +6.72% (2015) | −3.86% (2011) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
EUR/CAD in November, year by year
| November 2025 | +0.25% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | −2.31% |
| November 2023 | +1.05% |
| November 2022 | +3.66% |
| November 2021 | +0.98% |
| November 2020 | −0.11% |
| November 2019 | −0.11% |
| November 2018 | +1.09% |
| November 2017 | +2.07% |
| November 2016 | −3.34% |
| November 2015 | −2.52% |
| November 2014 | +0.62% |
| November 2013 | +1.70% |
| November 2012 | −0.23% |
Questions
Is November bullish for EUR/CAD?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), EUR/CAD rose in November 8 times, with an average move of +0.20% and a median of +0.44%. That is no clear lean; the range runs from −3.34% (2016) to +3.66% (2022). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for EUR/CAD?
Its best month on average is December (+0.60%, up in 8 of 15) and its worst is April (−0.25%, up in 7 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end.
What happens to EUR/CAD in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 8 of 15 years, +0.60% on average (median +0.00%).
How reliable is EUR/CAD seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on EUR/CAD: EUR/CAD analysis · EUR/CAD rate differential · EUR/CAD retail sentiment · Euro outlook · Euro COT positioning · ECB rate expectations · Eurozone economic surprises · Canadian Dollar outlook · Canadian Dollar COT positioning · BoC rate expectations · Canadian economic surprises
Other seasonality: EUR/USD in Nov −0.12% · USD/CAD in Nov +0.34% · EUR/GBP in Nov −0.67% · EUR/JPY in Nov +0.96% · EUR/CHF in Nov −0.27% · EUR/AUD in Nov −0.10% · EUR/NZD in Nov −1.09% · GBP/CAD in Nov +0.88% · AUD/CAD in Nov +0.34% · CAD/JPY in Nov +0.79% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the EUR/CAD path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.