Seasonality · EUR/USD · 12 November 2026
EUR/USD seasonality: is November bullish for EUR/USD?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), EUR/USD rose in November 7 times, with an average move of −0.12% and a median of +0.00%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 11 of 15 years, +0.67% on average (median +1.18%).
Its best month on average is April (+0.72%, up in 9 of 15) and its worst is May (−0.80%, up in 5 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | −0.09% | −0.02% | 7 of 15 | +3.38% (2018) | −6.70% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| February | −0.53% | −0.53% | 5 of 15 | +2.34% (2012) | −3.72% (2013) | 2012–2026 |
| March | −0.11% | −0.19% | 6 of 15 | +4.80% (2016) | −4.07% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| April | +0.72% | +0.68% | 9 of 15 | +5.12% (2025) | −5.01% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| May | −0.80% | −0.46% | 5 of 15 | +3.13% (2017) | −6.54% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| June | +0.39% | +0.37% | 10 of 15 | +3.73% (2025) | −2.84% (2021) | 2012–2026 |
| July | +0.11% | +0.25% | 9 of 15 | +5.21% (2020) | −2.88% (2025) | 2012–2026 |
| August | +0.15% | −0.20% | 7 of 15 | +2.31% (2025) | −1.79% (2014) | 2012–2026 |
| September | −0.67% | −0.68% | 6 of 15 | +2.57% (2013) | −3.97% (2014) | 2012–2026 |
| October | −0.70% | −0.78% | 4 of 15 | +2.29% (2019) | −2.60% (2024) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | −0.12% | +0.00% | 7 of 14 | +4.43% (2022) | −4.35% (2015) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | +0.67% | +1.18% | 11 of 15 | +3.63% (2022) | −3.57% (2011) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
EUR/USD in November, year by year
| November 2025 | +0.51% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | −2.84% |
| November 2023 | +3.22% |
| November 2022 | +4.43% |
| November 2021 | −2.29% |
| November 2020 | +2.58% |
| November 2019 | −1.22% |
| November 2018 | −0.08% |
| November 2017 | +2.15% |
| November 2016 | −3.50% |
| November 2015 | −4.35% |
| November 2014 | −0.73% |
| November 2013 | +0.09% |
| November 2012 | +0.40% |
Questions
Is November bullish for EUR/USD?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), EUR/USD rose in November 7 times, with an average move of −0.12% and a median of +0.00%. That is no clear lean; the range runs from −4.35% (2015) to +4.43% (2022). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for EUR/USD?
Its best month on average is April (+0.72%, up in 9 of 15) and its worst is May (−0.80%, up in 5 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end.
What happens to EUR/USD in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 11 of 15 years, +0.67% on average (median +1.18%).
How reliable is EUR/USD seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on EUR/USD: EUR/USD analysis · EUR/USD rate differential · EUR/USD retail sentiment · Euro outlook · Euro COT positioning · ECB rate expectations · Eurozone economic surprises · US Dollar outlook · US Dollar COT positioning · Fed rate expectations · US economic surprises
Other seasonality: EUR/GBP in Nov −0.67% · EUR/JPY in Nov +0.96% · EUR/CHF in Nov −0.27% · EUR/AUD in Nov −0.10% · EUR/CAD in Nov +0.20% · EUR/NZD in Nov −1.09% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the EUR/USD path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.