Positioning · retail sentiment · read at 08:31 UTC on 12 November 2026
EUR/USD retail sentiment: long vs short
As of 08:31 UTC on 12 November 2026, 64% of retail traders are long EUR/USD and 36% short, a long/short ratio of 1.78. A week earlier, on 5 November, 63% were long, so the crowd is 1 point more long this week.
The long share over 120 days
Over the 120 days the terminal holds (since 11 July), the long share has run from 35% to 69%; today's reading is higher than on 80% of those days.
The COT view beside it
Speculators in euro futures are net short 78,559 contracts (CFTC, positions at 3 Nov), at the 0th percentile of their own range. Euro COT positioning
Speculators in US dollar futures are net long 3,311 contracts (CFTC, positions at 3 Nov), at the 72nd percentile of their own range. US Dollar COT positioning
Retail shows the crowd at retail brokers; the CFTC report shows speculators in futures, weekly. The two often sit on opposite sides. This week's full report: the COT report.
Questions
Are retail traders long or short EUR/USD?
As of 08:31 UTC on 12 November 2026, 64% of retail traders are long EUR/USD and 36% short, a long/short ratio of 1.78. The crowd leans long, 64% on one side.
How has EUR/USD retail sentiment changed this week?
A week earlier, on 5 November, 63% were long, so the crowd is 1 point more long this week.
Is EUR/USD retail positioning extreme?
Over the 120 days the terminal holds (since 11 July), the long share has run from 35% to 69%; today's reading is higher than on 80% of those days. That is inside its recent range rather than at an edge of it.
What does the COT report say about EUR/USD?
Speculators in euro futures are net short 78,559 contracts (CFTC, positions at 3 Nov), at the 0th percentile of their own range. Speculators in US dollar futures are net long 3,311 contracts (CFTC, positions at 3 Nov), at the 72nd percentile of their own range.
How do traders read retail sentiment?
Many traders read it as a contrarian gauge: a crowd leaning heavily one way has often been on the wrong side of the move that follows, and is the side forced out when price runs against it. It is a description of positioning, not a signal. In WatchTower Terminal's composite score retail positioning is read that way, at a weight of 10%, alongside CFTC positioning, rates and research.
More on EUR/USD: EUR/USD analysis · EUR/USD rate differential · EUR/USD seasonality · Euro outlook · Euro COT positioning · ECB rate expectations · Eurozone economic surprises · US Dollar outlook · US Dollar COT positioning · Fed rate expectations · US economic surprises
Other pairs: EUR/AUD 52% long · EUR/CAD 53% long · EUR/CHF 74% long · EUR/GBP 75% long · EUR/JPY 49% long · EUR/NZD 38% long · all 30
Aggregated retail broker positioning, read every 20 minutes in the terminal; this page is rebuilt through the day. Not financial advice.