Seasonality · CHF/JPY · 12 November 2026
CHF/JPY seasonality: is November bullish for CHF/JPY?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), CHF/JPY rose in November 9 times, with an average move of +1.23% and a median of +1.13%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 10 of 15 years, +0.88% on average (median +1.38%).
Its best month on average is June (+1.32%, up in 10 of 15) and its worst is July (−0.63%, up in 7 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.34% | +0.17% | 8 of 15 | +6.07% (2013) | −4.41% (2014) | 2012–2026 |
| February | +0.17% | −0.37% | 6 of 15 | +8.55% (2012) | −4.24% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| March | +0.34% | +0.13% | 8 of 15 | +5.13% (2022) | −2.39% (2026) | 2012–2026 |
| April | +0.70% | +1.03% | 9 of 15 | +5.71% (2013) | −5.06% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| May | +0.22% | +0.57% | 12 of 15 | +3.50% (2015) | −8.29% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| June | +1.32% | +1.59% | 10 of 15 | +5.79% (2022) | −5.86% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| July | −0.63% | −0.78% | 7 of 15 | +2.08% (2025) | −4.83% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| August | +0.07% | +0.25% | 9 of 15 | +2.43% (2012) | −2.62% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| September | +0.10% | +0.90% | 8 of 15 | +3.31% (2022) | −4.66% (2026) | 2012–2026 |
| October | +1.14% | +1.48% | 10 of 15 | +4.21% (2021) | −3.50% (2018) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | +1.23% | +1.13% | 9 of 14 | +5.65% (2016) | −3.22% (2024) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | +0.88% | +1.38% | 10 of 15 | +6.22% (2012) | −3.61% (2011) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
CHF/JPY in November, year by year
| November 2025 | +1.26% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | −3.22% |
| November 2023 | +1.83% |
| November 2022 | −1.13% |
| November 2021 | −1.27% |
| November 2020 | +1.00% |
| November 2019 | −0.07% |
| November 2018 | +1.31% |
| November 2017 | +0.14% |
| November 2016 | +5.65% |
| November 2015 | −2.12% |
| November 2014 | +5.51% |
| November 2013 | +4.54% |
| November 2012 | +3.78% |
Questions
Is November bullish for CHF/JPY?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), CHF/JPY rose in November 9 times, with an average move of +1.23% and a median of +1.13%. That is a bullish lean; the range runs from −3.22% (2024) to +5.65% (2016). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for CHF/JPY?
Its best month on average is June (+1.32%, up in 10 of 15) and its worst is July (−0.63%, up in 7 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end.
What happens to CHF/JPY in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 10 of 15 years, +0.88% on average (median +1.38%).
How reliable is CHF/JPY seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on CHF/JPY: CHF/JPY analysis · CHF/JPY rate differential · CHF/JPY retail sentiment · Swiss Franc outlook · Swiss Franc COT positioning · SNB rate expectations · Swiss economic surprises · Japanese Yen outlook · Japanese Yen COT positioning · BoJ rate expectations · Japanese economic surprises
Other seasonality: USD/JPY in Nov +1.13% · USD/CHF in Nov −0.10% · EUR/JPY in Nov +0.96% · EUR/CHF in Nov −0.27% · GBP/JPY in Nov +1.68% · GBP/CHF in Nov +0.43% · AUD/JPY in Nov +1.10% · AUD/CHF in Nov −0.11% · NZD/JPY in Nov +2.12% · CAD/JPY in Nov +0.79% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the CHF/JPY path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.