Seasonality · USD/CHF · 12 November 2026
USD/CHF seasonality: is November bullish for USD/CHF?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), USD/CHF rose in November 7 times, with an average move of −0.10% and a median of +0.01%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 3 of 15 years, −0.90% on average (median −1.24%).
Its best month on average is September (+0.81%, up in 10 of 15) and its worst is December (−0.90%, up in 3 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | −0.71% | −0.33% | 7 of 15 | +2.17% (2024) | −7.29% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| February | +0.42% | +0.36% | 9 of 15 | +3.29% (2015) | −2.67% (2014) | 2012–2026 |
| March | +0.43% | +0.34% | 9 of 15 | +4.44% (2026) | −3.79% (2016) | 2012–2026 |
| April | −0.41% | −0.45% | 7 of 15 | +5.56% (2022) | −6.97% (2025) | 2012–2026 |
| May | +0.49% | −0.17% | 6 of 15 | +6.96% (2012) | −2.62% (2017) | 2012–2026 |
| June | −0.74% | −1.01% | 3 of 15 | +3.47% (2026) | −3.54% (2025) | 2012–2026 |
| July | −0.10% | −0.27% | 6 of 15 | +3.10% (2015) | −3.74% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| August | −0.14% | +0.05% | 8 of 15 | +2.47% (2022) | −3.46% (2024) | 2012–2026 |
| September | +0.81% | +0.81% | 10 of 15 | +4.14% (2014) | −2.92% (2013) | 2012–2026 |
| October | +0.57% | +0.72% | 9 of 15 | +3.06% (2018) | −1.86% (2021) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | −0.10% | +0.01% | 7 of 14 | +4.30% (2015) | −5.20% (2022) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | −0.90% | −1.24% | 3 of 15 | +2.94% (2011) | −3.67% (2023) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
USD/CHF in November, year by year
| November 2025 | +0.11% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | +2.01% |
| November 2023 | −4.12% |
| November 2022 | −5.20% |
| November 2021 | +0.57% |
| November 2020 | −1.15% |
| November 2019 | +1.35% |
| November 2018 | −0.70% |
| November 2017 | −1.30% |
| November 2016 | +3.00% |
| November 2015 | +4.30% |
| November 2014 | +0.36% |
| November 2013 | −0.10% |
| November 2012 | −0.50% |
Questions
Is November bullish for USD/CHF?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), USD/CHF rose in November 7 times, with an average move of −0.10% and a median of +0.01%. That is no clear lean; the range runs from −5.20% (2022) to +4.30% (2015). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for USD/CHF?
Its best month on average is September (+0.81%, up in 10 of 15) and its worst is December (−0.90%, up in 3 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end.
What happens to USD/CHF in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 3 of 15 years, −0.90% on average (median −1.24%).
How reliable is USD/CHF seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on USD/CHF: USD/CHF analysis · USD/CHF rate differential · USD/CHF retail sentiment · US Dollar outlook · US Dollar COT positioning · Fed rate expectations · US economic surprises · Swiss Franc outlook · Swiss Franc COT positioning · SNB rate expectations · Swiss economic surprises
Other seasonality: EUR/CHF in Nov −0.27% · GBP/CHF in Nov +0.43% · AUD/CHF in Nov −0.11% · CHF/JPY in Nov +1.23% · CAD/CHF in Nov −0.44% · NZD/CHF in Nov +0.88% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the USD/CHF path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.