Positioning · retail sentiment · read at 08:31 UTC on 12 November 2026
USD/JPY retail sentiment: long vs short
As of 08:31 UTC on 12 November 2026, 36% of retail traders are long USD/JPY and 64% short, a long/short ratio of 0.56. A week earlier, on 5 November, 39% were long, so the crowd is 3 points more short this week.
The long share over 120 days
Over the 120 days the terminal holds (since 11 July), the long share has run from 14% to 73%; today's reading is higher than on 18% of those days.
The COT view beside it
Speculators in yen futures are net short 14,817 contracts (CFTC, positions at 3 Nov), at the 65th percentile of their own range. Japanese Yen COT positioning
Speculators in US dollar futures are net long 3,311 contracts (CFTC, positions at 3 Nov), at the 72nd percentile of their own range. US Dollar COT positioning
Retail shows the crowd at retail brokers; the CFTC report shows speculators in futures, weekly. The two often sit on opposite sides. This week's full report: the COT report.
Questions
Are retail traders long or short USD/JPY?
As of 08:31 UTC on 12 November 2026, 36% of retail traders are long USD/JPY and 64% short, a long/short ratio of 0.56. The crowd leans short, 64% on one side.
How has USD/JPY retail sentiment changed this week?
A week earlier, on 5 November, 39% were long, so the crowd is 3 points more short this week.
Is USD/JPY retail positioning extreme?
Over the 120 days the terminal holds (since 11 July), the long share has run from 14% to 73%; today's reading is higher than on 18% of those days. That is inside its recent range rather than at an edge of it.
What does the COT report say about USD/JPY?
Speculators in yen futures are net short 14,817 contracts (CFTC, positions at 3 Nov), at the 65th percentile of their own range. Speculators in US dollar futures are net long 3,311 contracts (CFTC, positions at 3 Nov), at the 72nd percentile of their own range.
How do traders read retail sentiment?
Many traders read it as a contrarian gauge: a crowd leaning heavily one way has often been on the wrong side of the move that follows, and is the side forced out when price runs against it. It is a description of positioning, not a signal. In WatchTower Terminal's composite score retail positioning is read that way, at a weight of 10%, alongside CFTC positioning, rates and research.
More on USD/JPY: USD/JPY analysis · USD/JPY rate differential · USD/JPY seasonality · US Dollar outlook · US Dollar COT positioning · Fed rate expectations · US economic surprises · Japanese Yen outlook · Japanese Yen COT positioning · BoJ rate expectations · Japanese economic surprises
Other pairs: AUD/JPY 54% long · CAD/JPY 59% long · CHF/JPY 31% long · EUR/JPY 49% long · GBP/JPY 54% long · NZD/JPY 70% long · all 30
Aggregated retail broker positioning, read every 20 minutes in the terminal; this page is rebuilt through the day. Not financial advice.