Positioning · retail sentiment · read at 08:31 UTC on 12 November 2026
NZD/JPY retail sentiment: long vs short
As of 08:31 UTC on 12 November 2026, 70% of retail traders are long NZD/JPY and 30% short, a long/short ratio of 2.33. A week earlier, on 5 November, 72% were long, so the crowd is 2 points more short this week.
The long share over 120 days
Over the 120 days the terminal holds (since 11 July), the long share has run from 13% to 80%; today's reading is higher than on 61% of those days.
The COT view beside it
Speculators in New Zealand dollar futures are net short 23,154 contracts (CFTC, positions at 3 Nov), at the 26th percentile of their own range. New Zealand Dollar COT positioning
Speculators in yen futures are net short 14,817 contracts (CFTC, positions at 3 Nov), at the 65th percentile of their own range. Japanese Yen COT positioning
Retail shows the crowd at retail brokers; the CFTC report shows speculators in futures, weekly. The two often sit on opposite sides. This week's full report: the COT report.
Questions
Are retail traders long or short NZD/JPY?
As of 08:31 UTC on 12 November 2026, 70% of retail traders are long NZD/JPY and 30% short, a long/short ratio of 2.33. The crowd leans long, 70% on one side.
How has NZD/JPY retail sentiment changed this week?
A week earlier, on 5 November, 72% were long, so the crowd is 2 points more short this week.
Is NZD/JPY retail positioning extreme?
Over the 120 days the terminal holds (since 11 July), the long share has run from 13% to 80%; today's reading is higher than on 61% of those days. That is inside its recent range rather than at an edge of it.
What does the COT report say about NZD/JPY?
Speculators in New Zealand dollar futures are net short 23,154 contracts (CFTC, positions at 3 Nov), at the 26th percentile of their own range. Speculators in yen futures are net short 14,817 contracts (CFTC, positions at 3 Nov), at the 65th percentile of their own range.
How do traders read retail sentiment?
Many traders read it as a contrarian gauge: a crowd leaning heavily one way has often been on the wrong side of the move that follows, and is the side forced out when price runs against it. It is a description of positioning, not a signal. In WatchTower Terminal's composite score retail positioning is read that way, at a weight of 10%, alongside CFTC positioning, rates and research.
More on NZD/JPY: NZD/JPY analysis · NZD/JPY rate differential · NZD/JPY seasonality · New Zealand Dollar outlook · New Zealand Dollar COT positioning · RBNZ rate expectations · New Zealand economic surprises · Japanese Yen outlook · Japanese Yen COT positioning · BoJ rate expectations · Japanese economic surprises
Other pairs: AUD/JPY 54% long · AUD/NZD 34% long · CAD/JPY 59% long · CHF/JPY 31% long · EUR/JPY 49% long · EUR/NZD 38% long · GBP/JPY 54% long · GBP/NZD 39% long · NZD/CAD 61% long · NZD/CHF 83% long · all 30
Aggregated retail broker positioning, read every 20 minutes in the terminal; this page is rebuilt through the day. Not financial advice.