Seasonality · AUD/USD · 12 November 2026
AUD/USD seasonality: is November bullish for AUD/USD?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), AUD/USD rose in November 7 times, with an average move of +0.03% and a median of −0.24%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 9 of 15 years, +0.28% on average (median +0.70%).
Its best month on average is June (+0.43%, up in 10 of 15) and its worst is May (−1.30%, up in 7 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.21% | +0.39% | 8 of 15 | +4.89% (2026) | −5.03% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| February | −0.31% | +0.62% | 8 of 15 | +2.79% (2022) | −4.34% (2023) | 2012–2026 |
| March | −0.17% | −0.59% | 7 of 15 | +7.34% (2016) | −5.48% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| April | +0.36% | −0.35% | 7 of 15 | +6.25% (2020) | −5.31% (2022) | 2012–2026 |
| May | −1.30% | −0.13% | 7 of 15 | +2.31% (2024) | −7.37% (2013) | 2012–2026 |
| June | +0.43% | +1.14% | 10 of 15 | +5.41% (2012) | −4.61% (2013) | 2012–2026 |
| July | +0.06% | +0.53% | 8 of 15 | +4.07% (2017) | −4.83% (2015) | 2012–2026 |
| August | −0.54% | −0.70% | 5 of 15 | +3.52% (2024) | −3.89% (2023) | 2012–2026 |
| September | −0.70% | −0.26% | 7 of 15 | +4.95% (2013) | −6.50% (2014) | 2012–2026 |
| October | −0.35% | −0.67% | 6 of 15 | +3.90% (2021) | −5.54% (2024) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | +0.03% | −0.24% | 7 of 14 | +5.05% (2022) | −5.62% (2021) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | +0.28% | +0.70% | 9 of 15 | +4.87% (2020) | −5.04% (2024) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
AUD/USD in November, year by year
| November 2025 | +0.09% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | −0.56% |
| November 2023 | +4.45% |
| November 2022 | +5.05% |
| November 2021 | −5.62% |
| November 2020 | +4.67% |
| November 2019 | −1.83% |
| November 2018 | +3.12% |
| November 2017 | −1.25% |
| November 2016 | −2.94% |
| November 2015 | +1.43% |
| November 2014 | −3.04% |
| November 2013 | −3.65% |
| November 2012 | +0.57% |
Questions
Is November bullish for AUD/USD?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), AUD/USD rose in November 7 times, with an average move of +0.03% and a median of −0.24%. That is no clear lean; the range runs from −5.62% (2021) to +5.05% (2022). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for AUD/USD?
Its best month on average is June (+0.43%, up in 10 of 15) and its worst is May (−1.30%, up in 7 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end.
What happens to AUD/USD in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 9 of 15 years, +0.28% on average (median +0.70%).
How reliable is AUD/USD seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on AUD/USD: AUD/USD analysis · AUD/USD rate differential · AUD/USD retail sentiment · Australian Dollar outlook · Australian Dollar COT positioning · RBA rate expectations · Australian economic surprises · US Dollar outlook · US Dollar COT positioning · Fed rate expectations · US economic surprises
Other seasonality: EUR/AUD in Nov −0.10% · GBP/AUD in Nov +0.59% · AUD/JPY in Nov +1.10% · AUD/NZD in Nov −0.97% · AUD/CAD in Nov +0.34% · AUD/CHF in Nov −0.11% · all 39
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the AUD/USD path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.