Positioning · retail sentiment · read at 08:31 UTC on 12 November 2026
AUD/USD retail sentiment: long vs short
As of 08:31 UTC on 12 November 2026, 64% of retail traders are long AUD/USD and 36% short, a long/short ratio of 1.78. A week earlier, on 5 November, 56% were long, so the crowd is 8 points more long this week.
The long share over 120 days
Over the 120 days the terminal holds (since 11 July), the long share has run from 22% to 69%; today's reading is higher than on 96% of those days. That is near the most long it has been in the 120 days held.
The COT view beside it
Speculators in Australian dollar futures are net long 50,106 contracts (CFTC, positions at 3 Nov), at the 82nd percentile of their own range. Australian Dollar COT positioning
Speculators in US dollar futures are net long 3,311 contracts (CFTC, positions at 3 Nov), at the 72nd percentile of their own range. US Dollar COT positioning
Retail shows the crowd at retail brokers; the CFTC report shows speculators in futures, weekly. The two often sit on opposite sides. This week's full report: the COT report.
Questions
Are retail traders long or short AUD/USD?
As of 08:31 UTC on 12 November 2026, 64% of retail traders are long AUD/USD and 36% short, a long/short ratio of 1.78. The crowd leans long, 64% on one side.
How has AUD/USD retail sentiment changed this week?
A week earlier, on 5 November, 56% were long, so the crowd is 8 points more long this week.
Is AUD/USD retail positioning extreme?
Over the 120 days the terminal holds (since 11 July), the long share has run from 22% to 69%; today's reading is higher than on 96% of those days. That is near the most long it has been in the 120 days held.
What does the COT report say about AUD/USD?
Speculators in Australian dollar futures are net long 50,106 contracts (CFTC, positions at 3 Nov), at the 82nd percentile of their own range. Speculators in US dollar futures are net long 3,311 contracts (CFTC, positions at 3 Nov), at the 72nd percentile of their own range.
How do traders read retail sentiment?
Many traders read it as a contrarian gauge: a crowd leaning heavily one way has often been on the wrong side of the move that follows, and is the side forced out when price runs against it. It is a description of positioning, not a signal. In WatchTower Terminal's composite score retail positioning is read that way, at a weight of 10%, alongside CFTC positioning, rates and research.
More on AUD/USD: AUD/USD analysis · AUD/USD rate differential · AUD/USD seasonality · Australian Dollar outlook · Australian Dollar COT positioning · RBA rate expectations · Australian economic surprises · US Dollar outlook · US Dollar COT positioning · Fed rate expectations · US economic surprises
Other pairs: AUD/CAD 46% long · AUD/CHF 79% long · AUD/JPY 54% long · AUD/NZD 34% long · EUR/AUD 52% long · GBP/AUD 50% long · all 30
Aggregated retail broker positioning, read every 20 minutes in the terminal; this page is rebuilt through the day. Not financial advice.