Rate differentials · BoE vs RBNZ · priced as of 12 November 2026
GBP/NZD interest rate differential: BoE vs RBNZ
As of 12 November 2026, the GBP/NZD interest rate differential is +125 bp: the BoE's Bank Rate at 4.00% against the RBNZ's OCR at 2.75%, in favour of the pound. Markets price the gap at +117 bp in six months and +108 bp in twelve.
Over the next six months, markets price the gap to move −8 bp over six months, towards the New Zealand dollar. That six-month gap has moved +29 bp in a month.
The rate spread, now and priced ahead
| BoE (GBP) | RBNZ (NZD) | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Policy rate now | 4.00% | 2.75% | +125 bp |
| Priced in 6 months | 4.60% | 3.43% | +117 bp |
| Priced in 12 months | 4.77% | 3.69% | +108 bp |
| 6-month gap a month ago | 4.43% | 3.55% | +88 bp |
The gap is GBP minus NZD, in basis points (100 bp is one percentage point). Six and twelve months out is the rate implied after each bank's last meeting on or before that date. Market pricing, not a forecast. Each bank's meeting-by-meeting odds: BoE · RBNZ.
The carry on GBP/NZD
The pound: the Bank of England pays 4.00% against 2.75%, a gap of +125 bp. Holding the higher-yielding currency against the lower earns roughly that gap a year before costs, which is what the carry trade collects; a move in the exchange rate can outweigh it.
How the gap feeds the exchange rate, and when it does not: rate differentials explained and the carry trade explained.
Questions
What is the GBP/NZD interest rate differential?
As of 12 November 2026, the GBP/NZD interest rate differential is +125 bp: the BoE's Bank Rate at 4.00% against the RBNZ's OCR at 2.75%, in favour of the pound. Markets price the gap at +117 bp in six months and +108 bp in twelve.
Is the BoE–RBNZ gap priced to widen or narrow?
Markets price the gap to move −8 bp over six months, towards the New Zealand dollar, from +125 bp now to +117 bp. A month ago (13 October) the same six-month gap was priced at +88 bp, so it has moved +29 bp since. That is market pricing, not a forecast.
Which side of GBP/NZD has the carry?
The pound: the Bank of England pays 4.00% against 2.75%, a gap of +125 bp. Holding the higher-yielding currency against the lower earns roughly that gap a year before costs, which is what the carry trade collects; a move in the exchange rate can outweigh it.
Where does this pricing come from?
Each bank's priced path comes from the market instrument behind it: Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model for BoE, Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model for RBNZ. The rate six or twelve months out is the one implied after the last meeting on or before that date. The month-ago figure is from our daily snapshot of the same curves.
More on GBP/NZD: GBP/NZD analysis · GBP/NZD retail sentiment · GBP/NZD seasonality · British Pound outlook · British Pound COT positioning · BoE rate expectations · UK economic surprises · New Zealand Dollar outlook · New Zealand Dollar COT positioning · RBNZ rate expectations · New Zealand economic surprises
Other rate differentials: GBP/USD 0 bp · NZD/USD −125 bp · EUR/GBP −150 bp · EUR/NZD −25 bp · GBP/JPY +275 bp · GBP/CHF +400 bp · GBP/AUD −85 bp · GBP/CAD +150 bp · AUD/NZD +210 bp · NZD/JPY +150 bp · all 28
In WatchTower Terminal, the Rate spread panel draws the GBP/NZD gap against the price. Nothing here is financial advice.