Rate differentials · RBA vs RBNZ · priced as of 12 November 2026
AUD/NZD interest rate differential: RBA vs RBNZ
As of 12 November 2026, the AUD/NZD interest rate differential is +210 bp: the RBA's cash rate at 4.85% against the RBNZ's OCR at 2.75%, in favour of the Australian dollar. Markets price the gap at +145 bp in six months and +99 bp in twelve.
Over the next six months, markets price the gap to move −65 bp over six months, towards the New Zealand dollar. That six-month gap has moved +18 bp in a month.
The rate spread, now and priced ahead
| RBA (AUD) | RBNZ (NZD) | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Policy rate now | 4.85% | 2.75% | +210 bp |
| Priced in 6 months | 4.88% | 3.43% | +145 bp |
| Priced in 12 months | 4.68% | 3.69% | +99 bp |
| 6-month gap a month ago | 4.82% | 3.55% | +127 bp |
The gap is AUD minus NZD, in basis points (100 bp is one percentage point). Six and twelve months out is the rate implied after each bank's last meeting on or before that date. Market pricing, not a forecast. Each bank's meeting-by-meeting odds: RBA · RBNZ.
The carry on AUD/NZD
The Australian dollar: the RBA pays 4.85% against 2.75%, a gap of +210 bp. Holding the higher-yielding currency against the lower earns roughly that gap a year before costs, which is what the carry trade collects; a move in the exchange rate can outweigh it.
How the gap feeds the exchange rate, and when it does not: rate differentials explained and the carry trade explained.
Questions
What is the AUD/NZD interest rate differential?
As of 12 November 2026, the AUD/NZD interest rate differential is +210 bp: the RBA's cash rate at 4.85% against the RBNZ's OCR at 2.75%, in favour of the Australian dollar. Markets price the gap at +145 bp in six months and +99 bp in twelve.
Is the RBA–RBNZ gap priced to widen or narrow?
Markets price the gap to move −65 bp over six months, towards the New Zealand dollar, from +210 bp now to +145 bp. A month ago (13 October) the same six-month gap was priced at +127 bp, so it has moved +18 bp since. That is market pricing, not a forecast.
Which side of AUD/NZD has the carry?
The Australian dollar: the RBA pays 4.85% against 2.75%, a gap of +210 bp. Holding the higher-yielding currency against the lower earns roughly that gap a year before costs, which is what the carry trade collects; a move in the exchange rate can outweigh it.
Where does this pricing come from?
Each bank's priced path comes from the market instrument behind it: Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model for RBA, Exchange-traded futures, WatchTower model for RBNZ. The rate six or twelve months out is the one implied after the last meeting on or before that date. The month-ago figure is from our daily snapshot of the same curves.
More on AUD/NZD: AUD/NZD analysis · AUD/NZD retail sentiment · AUD/NZD seasonality · Australian Dollar outlook · Australian Dollar COT positioning · RBA rate expectations · Australian economic surprises · New Zealand Dollar outlook · New Zealand Dollar COT positioning · RBNZ rate expectations · New Zealand economic surprises
Other rate differentials: AUD/USD +85 bp · NZD/USD −125 bp · EUR/AUD −235 bp · EUR/NZD −25 bp · GBP/AUD −85 bp · GBP/NZD +125 bp · AUD/JPY +360 bp · AUD/CAD +235 bp · AUD/CHF +485 bp · NZD/JPY +150 bp · all 28
In WatchTower Terminal, the Rate spread panel draws the AUD/NZD gap against the price. Nothing here is financial advice.