Seasonality · USD/MXN · 12 November 2026
USD/MXN seasonality: is November bullish for USD/MXN?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), USD/MXN rose in November 8 times, with an average move of +0.33% and a median of +0.32%. December, the month ahead, has risen in 8 of 15 years, +0.34% on average (median +0.36%).
Its best month on average is August (+1.18%, up in 8 of 15) and its worst is January (−0.66%, up in 8 of 15).
The seasonal pattern: average return by month
Monthly seasonal returns, all 12 months
| Month | Average | Median | Up years | Best | Worst | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | −0.66% | +0.16% | 8 of 15 | +5.91% (2016) | −6.56% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| February | −0.21% | −0.69% | 5 of 15 | +4.45% (2020) | −4.02% (2017) | 2012–2026 |
| March | −0.16% | −1.74% | 5 of 15 | +18.84% (2020) | −5.84% (2017) | 2012–2026 |
| April | +0.11% | +0.21% | 8 of 15 | +3.32% (2018) | −4.24% (2025) | 2012–2026 |
| May | +0.90% | −0.95% | 5 of 15 | +10.12% (2012) | −7.54% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| June | −0.02% | +0.44% | 8 of 15 | +7.46% (2024) | −6.25% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| July | −0.55% | −0.72% | 5 of 15 | +2.36% (2015) | −5.35% (2018) | 2012–2026 |
| August | +1.18% | +0.47% | 8 of 15 | +5.70% (2024) | −1.82% (2026) | 2012–2026 |
| September | +0.75% | +0.96% | 10 of 15 | +6.19% (2026) | −2.85% (2012) | 2012–2026 |
| October | +0.82% | +0.41% | 8 of 15 | +8.29% (2018) | −3.69% (2020) | 2012–2026 |
| November (now) | +0.33% | +0.32% | 8 of 14 | +8.87% (2016) | −5.29% (2020) | 2012–2025 |
| December (next) | +0.34% | +0.36% | 8 of 15 | +5.96% (2014) | −4.38% (2021) | 2011–2025 |
Each month is the last 15 complete years of that month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end. The month in progress is not counted. History, not a forecast.
USD/MXN in November, year by year
| November 2025 | −1.38% |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | +1.41% |
| November 2023 | −3.75% |
| November 2022 | −2.43% |
| November 2021 | +4.39% |
| November 2020 | −5.29% |
| November 2019 | +1.92% |
| November 2018 | +0.21% |
| November 2017 | −2.59% |
| November 2016 | +8.87% |
| November 2015 | +0.43% |
| November 2014 | +3.25% |
| November 2013 | +0.86% |
| November 2012 | −1.30% |
Questions
Is November bullish for USD/MXN?
Over the last 14 years (2012 to 2025), USD/MXN rose in November 8 times, with an average move of +0.33% and a median of +0.32%. That is no clear lean; the range runs from −5.29% (2020) to +8.87% (2016). A seasonal tendency is history, not a forecast.
What is the best month for USD/MXN?
Its best month on average is August (+1.18%, up in 8 of 15) and its worst is January (−0.66%, up in 8 of 15). Measured over the last 15 years of each month, from the Federal Reserve's daily exchange rates (H.10), month-end to month-end.
What happens to USD/MXN in December?
December, the month ahead, has risen in 8 of 15 years, +0.34% on average (median +0.36%).
How reliable is USD/MXN seasonality?
Fifteen years is fifteen observations per month, so one large year can move an average a long way; the median and the count of up years are steadier. Seasonality is one input among several, and is weighed as one in the terminal's composite score.
More on USD/MXN: USD/MXN analysis · US Dollar outlook · US Dollar COT positioning · Fed rate expectations · US economic surprises · Mexican Peso outlook · Mexican Peso COT positioning · Mexican economic surprises
In WatchTower Terminal, the Seasonality panel draws the USD/MXN path through the year over 5, 10 and 15 years against this year. Not financial advice.